There’s a story in Politico about why Donald Trumps poll numbers are surging. The article focuses on a growing consensus of support among republics and the falling favorability of Clinton. It’s also important to notice that Trumps rise occurred in spite of (or because of) the first Hilalry Clinton Superpack attack ads against the Republican nominee and the New York Times Hit Piece.
This morning the Huffington post was trying to compare Trumps Polls to John McCains in 2008, suggesting that because of this comparison the current polling data means nothing in terms of his ability to win. Obviously like anyone else with over half a brain, I have 0 respect the Huffington Post and think at least 86% of their reporting is shit. Still, I know they aren’t the only news outlet likely to make comparisons to 2008.
I have a problem with 2008 comparisons to this election because aside from a big D after their names, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have little in common as candidates. Obama was charismatic, Hillary is not. Obama had a fresh name and face, While the Clinton name has been soiled by years of public scrutiny and corruption accusations. Yesterday the New York Post Published a gnarly article regarding How Corporate America bought Hillary Clinton for $21 million. This story has already been shared over 45,00 times and is the kind of behavior that makes Bernie Sanders Democrats distrust her. Also it’s historically difficult for the same party to win 3 terms in a row. The last time this occurred was George H. W. Bush in 1988.
This, however, does not mean that I believe Trump is a shoe in for the presidency, I just don’t believe his chances are as slim as the mainstream media likes to portray.
Predicting a candidates chances is kind of a nuanced task. It’s difficult for me to give a 100% confident answer. I don’t feel guilty doing this because it’s like a stock market prediction. Probability is not set in stone or garunteed. It’s an estimate on chances. I’d give Trump a 40% probability, but an optimistic 40 %… Let’s just say at this point, if I was feeling dangerous, yes, I would bet money on Trump winning. Not my life savings, but maybe like $30.